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Godrej Prop. Granules India. Graphite India. Greaves Cotton. Grindwell Norto. Guj Alkali. Guj Heavy Chem. Guj Mineral. Guj State Petro. Gujarat Fluoro. Gujarat Gas. Gujarat Pipavav. Gulf Oil Lubric. Hathway Cable. Havells India. Hawkins Cooker. HCL Tech. HDFC Bank. HDFC Life. Heidelberg Cem. Hero Motocorp. The procedure was the same for the other divisions. The beta for Alaska Gas was the average of the releveraged betas assuming a debt-equity ratio of 1 from proxy companies in the gas distribution and gas transmission industries.

To test the accuracy of these estimates, the AKI staff compared the weighted average of the releveraged betas with the January market-derived AKI beta. Note that the VICO agreement had not yet been announced. A similar proxy beta analysis at the end of yielded a beta slightly over 1. AKI management used this risk analysis as a benchmark for performance. Exhibit V shows an estimate of subsidiary performance with the return on capital used as a proxy for the long-term return to the investor.

Alaska Gas, the low-risk subsidiary, outperformed both Lockwood and the parent company. The agricultural equipment business, however, was in a slump, largely because many low-moisture areas had received unusually abundant rainfall. Exhibit VI Performance of Subsidiary vs. Industry June —December The heads of both Alaska Gas and Lockwood had forecast their results rather well.

If they believed its prospects were dismal, AKI executives would obviously want to answer the following questions:. A summary appears in Exhibit VII. The group judged Alaska Gas to be in a superior position with respect to its facilities and resources but also in a deteriorating position because of the declining growth rate of its Anchorage market. Since the commission set the rates the company could charge, its future returns were difficult to predict.

Lockwood had products with strong competitive positions, but they were in mature and declining markets. Management expected low crop prices to continue, and low prices would lead to a drop in new and replacement purchases of farm equipment. Moreover, technological innovation was altering the irrigation equipment business, and the barriers to entry were few. The AKI staff turned this analysis into estimates of the future risk and return for each subsidiary. Analysts figured cash flows and, by using a discounted cash flow approach, converted them to estimated returns.

Thus far, a rather traditional analysis. Each circle represents a subsidiary, and the circle size the proportion of corporate capital employed.

Not unexpectedly, the Alaska Interstate managers decided that Alaska Gas would be less risky 2. This exhibit also shows the difference between the first assessment these managers made, in April , and the one they made in December The arrows show the movement from the April forecast to the circle that represents the December forecast.

While far more subjective as a measure of future risk than a mechanistic approach like the industry proxy betas, this approach included the best judgment of the most knowledgeable people. The process of obtaining the information in a systematic way forced these managers to make their evaluations with care. Exhibit IX shows the anticipated changes in risk and return by The circles are those made in the December assessment, and the arrows point to the expected position in While planning little new investment in either Lockwood or Alaska Gas, the AKI officers expected better returns from Lockwood when an assumed pent-up demand for irrigation equipment made itself felt.

On the whole, the managers expected the entire AKI portfolio to become more profitable, at a slight increase in risk. That increase in risk would come not from Lockwood or Alaska Gas but from the new offshore gas venture.

It had, of course, in the short run quite the opposite effect. Making explicit judgments about risk and return, however, puts a spotlight on the assumptions behind them and inhibits overenthusiasm. Second, the use of probabilistic analysis could have helped pinpoint the magnitude of the systematic and the unsystematic risk. These changes are important; the first ensures that the data will be comparable from manager to manager, and the second defines the sources of risk that require managers to follow different strategies.

The evidence indicated that Alaska Gas was not particularly sensitive to macroeconomic events and was unlikely to be exposed to much risk from industry or company-specific sources. Lockwood appeared to be quite different. With a beta of 1. So Lockwood was a risky venture. Great opportunities as well as dangers lie with such businesses.

Unsystematic risk can be reduced by diversification. If you have a certain winner, however, reducing such risk is giving away increased value. Instead of diversifying to spread the risk, the Alaska Interstate executives decided to sell Lockwood. Politics have a direct effect on international relations, regulations, monetary and fiscal policies, lawmaking, taxation, and many other aspects of the economy.

This, in turn, may influence the ability of a company to do business, the price of base materials, the marketing and distribution process, and many others. And all of these factors may have a strong influence on the performance of a company.

Market sentiment is the collective psychology of investors, and what they think will happen with the market. Often, though, investors base their trading decisions on trends, either riding the wave of the trend and creating momentum, or believing that the trend will soon revert and going against it. Stock prices are driven by a variety of factors, but ultimately the price at any given moment is due to the supply and demand at that point in time in the market.

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